Thursday, January 8, 2009

2010 Senate Forecast: The Toss Ups

While the 111th Congress was sworn in just days ago, the campaign for those seeking entry and retention in the 112th has begun. While much can change within a matter of days, much less the nearly two years until Election Day 2010, the foundations are being built for the campaign to come. This is the first in a set of periodic forecasts on what the US Senate will look like in 2010.

Another Large Playing Field for Democrats
I currently count 14 seats as either competitive or potentially competitive. That number is bound to go up and down as life events happen (retirements, deaths, incarcerations, etc.). Of the currently 34 seats up for election (there will be additional special elections once Hillary Clinton and Ken Salazar are confirmed to their cabinet posts), 19 are held by Republicans while 16 are Democratic seats. Of the seats I consider competitive or potentially competitive, 11 are Republican seats and 3 are held by Democrats.

Below I characterize the races as I see them at this time, and try to explain and give evidence about my beliefs. Without further ado, let's go to the queue!

Pure Toss-Ups

Colorado: With the election of Senator Ken Salazar, Democratic governor Bill Ritter, Senator "Boulder Liberal" Mark Udall, President Barack Obama, and the taking of three Republican House seats all within the past four years, Colorado sounds like a solidly Democratic state. But the truth is that Colorado is a traditionally red state that has only recently been trending blue.

With Salazar being selected as Barack Obama's choice to head the Department of Interior, he almost certainly secured Colorado's place as the most endangered Democratic seat in 2010. Governor Ritter compounded that by selecting 44-year-old Denver schools chief Michael Bennett to fill the vacancy. Bennett has never run for office before.

He can be encouraged however by the fact that the Colorado Republicans have an anemic bench right now, with several members of Congress being defeated in recent elections. Former Congressman Scott McInnis, former Congressman and 2008 Senate nominee Bob Schaffer, and former Congressman Tom Tancredo have all been mentioned as possible candidates for the race. Tancredo winning the primary would be a gift to Democrats, and the state would be moved to the "Likely Dem" uncompetitive category.

Florida: With or without the retirement of Mel Martinez, this race would have been competitive. But an open seat race in one of the most competitive states in the nation will draw in top-tier candidates from both parties. Democrats were handed a gift when popular former Governor Jeb Bush declined to run for the seat.

Several Democrats are considering a run, including Alex Sink and Robert Wexler. Sink has run a statewide campaign before while Wexler is a more passionate campaigner. On the Republican side, Attorney General Bill McCollum, Speaker Marc Rubio, and Congressman Connie Mack IV are said to be interested.

Missouri: The Show Me State is a consistent battleground. With the unexpected retirement announcement of Senator Kit Bond, 2010 will be no different. The list of interested Republicans is wide, with Congressman Sam Graves, former Congressman Kenny Husolf, Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson, Congressman Roy Blunt, and former Senator Jim Talent all mentioned as possible candidates.

On the Democratic side, only two names are frequently mentioned and they both share the last name Carnahan. Robin Carnahan is the strongest possible candidate. The daughter of former Governor Mel Carnahan and former Senator Jean Carnahan is now the Missouri Secretary of State. If she runs, the Democratic field will clear. If she doesn't, expect her brother, Congressman Russ Carnahan to take a shot.

Kentucky: Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning has been considered the most endangered Republican in this cycle since his unexpectedly narrow race in 2004, when he was nearly beaten by a little-known physician and state senator in Dan Mongiardo. While I think it is likely that Bunning will opt for retirement rather than another tough race, Congressman Ben Chandler is sitting on more than $1 Million for the race. If Chandler opts out, Lt. Governor Mongiardo may want a rematch. Either way, this race is close to being "Lean Dem."

North Carolina: It would be irresponsible to leave this race off the list. This is referred to as North Carolina's "cursed" Senate seat. Since 1975, no senator has gone on to a second term in this seat. Richard Burr hopes to buck that trend. Unfortunately for him, in the only public polling available Burr is trailing Democratic Attorney General Roy Moore by 5 points. Congressman Heath Shuler is also interested in a run and has nearly as much cash on hand as Burr for the race (around $1 Million). Both men would be very tough candidates for Senator Burr to defeat.

Next Time: Potentially Competitive Republican Seats

That took up more time and space than I thought. Next time, I'll list the seats that I think could be competitive and what circumstances would make them so.